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169 Uppsatser om Demographic forecast - Sida 1 av 12
Ledningsprognosers egenskaper - Hur påverkar de mängden Earnings Management
The purpose of this paper is to investigate the relationship between Earnings Management (EM) and certain characteristics of management forecasts, among a sample of Swedish listed companies. The forecast characteristics studied are: 1) Forecast venue: How explicitly is the forecast presented? 2) Forecast precision: How detailed is the estimated number? 3) Forecast measure: Which measure(s) are forecasted? We use a sample of 68 annual management forecasts, obtained from year-end reports between the years 2007-2011. EM during the forecasted year (2008-2012) is estimated using the cross-sectional modified-Jones model. The forecast characteristics are then related to the degree of EM during the forecasted period.
Empiriska växelkursmodeller för den svenska kronan - Är det någon som fungerar?
The forecast ability of four well-known exchange rate models for theSwedish krona is tested in this thesis. The models that are tested arethe purchase power parity, the real interest differential model, thesticky-price model and a productivity model. In addition to thebenchmark, the random walk, they are also compared to each other.They are all tested on three different horizons one quarter, two quartersand four quarters. The mean squared forecast error criteria and thedirection of change criteria are used for evaluation of the forecastability. Only in a couple of cases are the forecast ability of thetheoretical based models significant better than the random walk..
Att prognostisera avverkningspotentialen i privatskogsbruket
For the actors in the Swedish forest industry, it is important to have the ability to forecast the state in the privateforests. The information that comes out of the forecasts will be the base for the activities strategic direction.The aim in this exam is to survey what information that is present today as basis for forecast calculation, andeven to examine what other possibilities it might have in the future.From a limited geography and out of different time perspective forecast the felling potential in the privateforestry.With the word felling potential means regeneration felling and thinning. The exam will answer the questions:What information is needed to build a relevant forecast model?Is this information available today?Is there information to buy that would improve the forecast model?The result of this exam will be presented in form of a ”case study” showing the opportunities in the market tocreate a forecast calculation of felling potential in the private forestry within the Forest Owners’ AssociationMellanskogs wood-area Dalarna..
Bryggor - En studie av bryggors förekomst i publika bolag och påverkan på träffsäkerhet i analytikerestimat av EPS
Previous studies have shown that there is a relationship between voluntary disclosure and analysts' forecast accuracy. However, there has been no research conducted specifically on bridges. Bridges contain information on how components such as price, volume, foreign exchange rates and acquisitions have impacted the financial performance between two periods. The main purpose of this thesis is to investigate the usage of bridges in quarterly financial information of companies listed on Nasdaq Stockholm. We provide a descriptive mapping of bridges and find that 30 out of 268 companies are presenting bridges as a part of their voluntary disclosures, with large firms being the most frequent users.
Prognostisering av utrustningar på Volvo Wheel Loaders
Volvo in Arvika produces wheel loaders, and the production is based on forecasts. When a machine is ordered, the customer can choose what type of equipment he or she wants, and these equipments are also made forecasts on. This is made by giving each equipment an estimated procentual usage that shows how many of the machines that will use this option. Today two people are working with the forecasts, planer A in Eskilstuna and planer B in Arvika. Planer A makes a forecast based on the historical outcome and planer B then makes adjustments of this based on how many options that are ordered.
Demographic Surveillance System Implementation - Low-level structures of the PDA - PC/PDA communication
Demographic Surveillance System Implementation- Low-level structures of the PDA- PC/PDA communicationThis thesis report describes the continuing work to develop a tool for demographic research at CIDS (Centro de Investigación en Demografía y Salud Universidad Nacional Autónoma de Nicaragua), UNAN, Leon/Nicaragua.The report is divided into four parts:? Revision of the existing database as a result of newly found requierments? Implementation of the low-level design on the PDA? Communication between the PC and the PDA? A mid-storage database on the client-PC.
Kundlojalitet : en studie om vilken påverkan de demografiska aspekterna har på kundens lojalitet mot sin bank.
In Sweden today almost all people are connected to a bank in some way. It can range from loans, savings, shares, etc. They have a current account where salaries, student aid etc. is paid. Due to the large selection of banks, it has become more important for banks to be competitive in their services to their customers so they don?t change bank.
Är det lönsamt att ta hänsyn till temperatursvängningar? : En fallstudie om prognostisering på Karlstads Energi
Being able to predict the future had been an invaluable competitive advantage for any corporation. Forecasting is a vital part of any business, hence a good forecast allows enterprises to invest in a beneficial way. However, there are several ways to prepare forecasts and the forecast methodology can vary. An industry that is dependent on forecasts is the energy industry. By predicting consumers' energy consumption, Swedish energy companies can hedge on the Nordic power market Nord Pool.
Prognostisering av räntabilitet på eget kapital - Förbättras möjligheten att prognostisera räntabilitet på eget kapital om hänsyn tas till earnings management
Prior studies have shown that earnings management can be used either to inform or to mislead investors about the future performance of a company. However, few studies have examined the impact of earnings management on forecasting return on equity (ROE). The aim of this thesis is to investigate whether the ability to forecast next year's ROE is improved when taking earnings management, measured as discretionary accruals, into account. This is examined by comparing a forecast model that takes the magnitude of discretionary accruals into consideration with a model that does not. The study is based on companies that were listed on the Stockholm Stock Exchange during 2002-2012.
Utveckling och utvördering av statistiska metoder för att öka träffsäkerheten hos lokala vindprognoser
Wind is used as an energy source all over the world. To be able to use this effectively, there is a need for as good forecasts and forecast models as possible. One of these models is Coupled Ocean/Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System (COAMPS®) that is used to calculate short time forecasts. This model is used here to calculate wind speeds at two different areas in Västra Götaland, Bengtsfors and Vänersborg. There are also wind measurements with SODAR stations for these areas.
Kostnader för välfärdstjänster i Västra Götalands kommuner
This bachelor?s thesis examines costs of welfare services in municipalities of the region of Västra Götaland in Sweden. Previous research provided reasons to expect a link between costs of welfare services and demographic changes. Furthermore, Willam J. Baumol?s theory about ?the cost disease? also provided reasons to expect a link between welfare services and salary levels.
Analys av kvalitet i en webbpanel : Studie av webbpanelsmedlemmarna och deras svarsmönster
During 2012, the employer of this essay carried out a telephone survey with 18000 participants and a web panel survey with 708 participants. Those who partook in the telephone survey were given a choice to join the web panel. The purpose of this work is to study the participants of the telephone survey and see if they reflect the Swedish population with regards to several socio-demographic factors. Also, we intend to investigate if the propensity to join the web panel differs for participants of the telephone survey with regards to various socio-demographic affiliations. It is also of interest to study if the response pattern is different for participants of the telephone survey that would like to join the web panel and those who reject.
En flashestimator för den privata konsumtionen i Sverige med hjälpvariablerna HIP och detaljhandeln ? En tidsserieanalys med hjälp av statistikprogrammet TRAMO
In this essay we aim at finding an appropriate flash estimator of the quarterly Swedish private consumption (PK). With the aid of the statistics program TRAMO we study if monthly data from the consumer survey (HIP) and retail industry (DH) can be used in a transfer function model (TFM) to forecast PK. In the work of assessing the state of the market and the business trend, fast information from the national accounts is needed for making decisions for the economic politics in Sweden. A way to speed up the information process is to use leading economic indicators to asses this development. Another way to get information faster is to use a flash estimate.
Prognostisering av räntabilitet på eget kapital - En jämförelsestudie av tre regressionsmodellers prognosförmåga applicerat på svenska data
A multivariate cross-sectional model is used in this thesis to proxy for expected earnings and to estimate return on equity for 214 companies over the period 2009-2013, using Swedish data. The model, which has never been tested on Swedish data before, is first confirmed to function as a forecasting model for expected return. Furthermore, the model is evaluated through a comparison with two univariate models based on the assumption that return on equity follows a mean reversion process. Forecast accuracy is calculated as the difference of estimated returns and actual returns. The results show that the univariate models' forecasts are superior to the multivariate model's..
Efter pesten : om återhämtningen efter pestepidemin på 1710-talet i Skåne
From 1710 to 1713 the plague raged through the Swedish province of Scania. Other studies have been made on how the disease affected the society during the epidemic. This study tries to focus on the recovery afterwards. How did the population and the farmsteads recover after the plague? Statistics from parish registers and cameral records show interesting patterns in the demography, and that the recovery was far from complete 1720.